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Is the U.S. economy slipping into recession? All eyes on key economic data; Update: Dismal jobs report; ISM manufacturing index declines

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http://twitter.com/#!/jdawg1847/status/208513485242511360

Economists, investors, traders, and political analysts are waiting with bated breath for several market-moving data releases this morning.

The most important one: May nonfarm payrolls, due to be released by the Department of Labor at 8:30 am eastern time. According to the Wall Street Journal, economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 158,000 after last month’s smaller-than-expected gain of 115,000.

Other key economic indicators to be released today are personal-income growth (expected to slow to 0.3% from 0.4%) and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index (expected to drop to 54.0 from 54.5).

These economic indicators always get a lot of attention, but today’s numbers are seen as particularly significant in light of recent signs of an economic slowdown: weak figures this week from the Chicago Business Barometer, Automatic Data Processing’s employment estimate, a downward revision to first-quarter economic growth, and a recent rally in the U.S. bond market. (Bonds perform well when economic growth is expected to be weak.)  Also, today’s releases come during a heated presidential campaign and just a few weeks prior to a rate-setting meeting of the Federal Reserve.

Twitchy will update this post with Twitter reaction as the numbers come in.

UPDATE:

The numbers are in and they’re awful, leading to growing concern that we’re slipping into another recession. This is terrible news for President Obama, but even worse news for the country.

Nonfarm payrolls failed to meet expectations again and unemployment is up:

BREAKING: NewsCore: (URGENT): US May nonfarm payrolls rise 69K, unemployment jumps to 8.2%.

— Bill Hemmer (@BillHemmer) June 1, 2012

Other key figures:

Construction jobs down 28K

— Philip Klein (@philipaklein) June 1, 2012

U-6 surges to 14.8% from 14.5%

— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) June 1, 2012

And here we go: #Unemployment is up 0.1%, while March and April jobs numbers were downwardly revised by 11,000 and 38,000 jobs respectively.

— John Gjika (@JohnGjika) June 1, 2012

April revised down to 77,000

— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) June 1, 2012

Total revisions to March and April are -49,000

— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) June 1, 2012

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) rose from 5.1 to 5.4 million in May.

— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) June 1, 2012

April revised down to 77,000

— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) June 1, 2012

Long-term unemployed in May accounted for 42.8 percent of the unemployed, says the Bureal of Labor Statistics.

— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) June 1, 2012

U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3%

— Anthony De Rosa (@AntDeRosa) June 1, 2012

Reaction:

Let the panic begin …

— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) June 1, 2012

I'll say it: recession.

— Pedro da Costa (@pdacosta) June 1, 2012

Wow…unemployment up, that takes the fun out of national donut day

— Sean Spicer (@seanspicer) June 1, 2012

More evidence Obama econ policy hurts Americans. Unemployment up to 8.2%, only 69k jobs added and April #s revised down. Time for him to go.

— Liz Cheney (@Liz_Cheney) June 1, 2012

40 straight months of unemployment above 8%. #Obamaisntworking

— Brittany Cover (@bccover) June 1, 2012

Obama just got his worst news of the campaign so far. Weak jobs numbers. Lowered GDP too.

— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) June 1, 2012

In written statement, Speaker Boehner says "President Obama’s failed policies" have made high unemployment "the sad new normal."

— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) June 1, 2012

Economist Robert Brusca: "lots of clouds here no real silver lining"

— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) June 1, 2012

No reason for Obama to be favored on InTrade any longer (was about 56% this AM).

— Nathan Wurtzel (@NathanWurtzel) June 1, 2012

Obama only has a "laser like focus" on fundraising. Only cares about ONE job; his own. And he stinks at that, too.

— Lori Ziganto (@snarkandboobs) June 1, 2012

For several weeks I have talked deflationary signs.Soaring dollar,falling commodities and Treasury rates.Terrible jobs report confirms.

— Larry Kudlow (@larry_kudlow) June 1, 2012

Politicians weigh in:

Unemployment rate up. @BarackObama’s re-election slogan may be ‘forward’ but it seems like we've been moving backward. We can do better.

— Mitt Romney (@MittRomney) June 1, 2012

Economy only created 69k jobs in May, April revised down to 77k — #WeCanDoBetter

— Kay Bailey Hutchison (@kaybaileyhutch) June 1, 2012

#Unemployment rate UP, no surprise as underemployment and labor force participation, truer indicators, have been higher for months.

— Tim Scott (@SenatorTimScott) June 1, 2012

Eric Cantor on CNBC: "This is terrible. These job numbers are pathetic."

— Philip Klein (@philipaklein) June 1, 2012

US businesses added 82K jobs in May, while government shed 13K jobs due to R demanded austerity. We shouldn't be cutting in recession

— Rep. Keith Ellison (@keithellison) June 1, 2012

From a Romney campaign statement:

Romney calls jobs numbers "devastating" and says that this is why he is running for president.

— Emily Friedman (@EmilyABC) June 1, 2012

Romney statement: "It is now clear to everyone that President Obama’s policies have failed to achieve their goals"

— Ginger Gibson (@GingerGibson) June 1, 2012

Romney stmt: POTUS "slogan may be ‘forward,’ but it seems like we've been moving backward. We can do so much better in America."

— Sarah Boxer (@Sarah_Boxer) June 1, 2012

UPDATE 2:

The ISM manufacturing index decreased more than expected to 53.5.

Breaking: Pace of expansion in U.S. manufacturing sector cools down in May from April, ISM reports.

— FOX Business (@FoxBusiness) June 1, 2012

Breaking: ISM manufacturing index fell to 53.5 in May, weaker than 53.9 market expected and down from April's 54.8. http://t.co/CJYb4XHu

— Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) June 1, 2012

5 of ISM indices are now in contraction territory. Welcome to the Recession

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 1, 2012

Read more: http://twitchy.com/2012/06/01/is-the-u-s-economy-slipping-into-recession-all-eyes-on-key-economic-data/

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